Bitcoin’s Resilience Amid Japan’s $135 Billion Stimulus: A Bullish Outlook for 2026

On January 10, 2026, Japan announced a massive 21.3 trillion yen ($135.4 billion) economic stimulus package—its largest fiscal expansion since the pandemic—to combat economic stagnation and household inflation. Concurrently, bitcoin experienced a dip below $85,500. As a professional cryptocurrency practitioner with a bullish outlook, I analyze this development not as a sign of weakness, but as a potential consolidation phase within a broader upward trajectory. Japan's stimulus, which includes 17.7 trillion yen in budget expenditures and 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts, signals a significant injection of liquidity into the global financial system. Historically, such expansive fiscal and monetary policies have acted as a catalyst for alternative asset classes, including digital assets. The inflationary pressures the package aims to address further underscore the fundamental value proposition of Bitcoin as a decentralized store of value and hedge against currency debasement. The short-term price dip below $85,500 is likely a market recalibration, absorbing macro news and providing a healthier entry point for long-term investors. The underlying drivers for Bitcoin—institutional adoption, its fixed supply, and its role in the evolving digital economy—remain robust and are arguably strengthened by traditional markets' need for stimulus. Looking ahead to 2026, this event reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin's maturation within global finance. We may see increased correlation discussions between sovereign fiscal policies and digital asset valuations. The dip presents a strategic opportunity, and I anticipate a strong rebound as the market digests the long-term implications of sustained global liquidity, potentially propelling Bitcoin toward new highs as it continues to assert its position in the future of finance.

Japan Unveils $135 Billion Stimulus Amid Economic Stagnation; Bitcoin Dips Below $85,500

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has greenlit a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.4 billion) stimulus package, the country's largest fiscal expansion since the pandemic. The plan allocates 17.7 trillion yen for budget expenditures and 2.7 trillion yen for tax cuts, aiming to counter economic stagnation and household inflation pressures.

While economists debate the unconventional dual focus on inflation control and income growth, Bitcoin failed to react as a traditional inflation hedge. The cryptocurrency slid below $85,500 despite the macroeconomic developments, extending its recent bearish trend.

Bitcoin Nears Critical $82K Support as Whale Activity Collapses

Bitcoin teeters on the edge of a pivotal $82,045 support level as institutional participation evaporates. Whale transactions above $1 million have plummeted 87% since October, signaling eroding confidence among large holders. The $82K zone represents the last major accumulation band, with 825,000 BTC acquired at this price. A breach could trigger cascading liquidations.

Market sentiment mirrors 2022's capitulation phase, with fear dominating crypto and traditional assets alike. The absence of whale bids has created a liquidity vacuum, exacerbating volatility. Glassnode data shows no significant demand below $82K, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to accelerated declines if support fails.

This fragility contrasts sharply with Q3's institutional inflows. The collapse in high-value transactions suggests smart money is waiting for either a breakdown or confirmation of the support zone. Market makers appear reluctant to defend levels aggressively, creating a powder keg scenario.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy Faces Nasdaq and MSCI Delisting Amid Bitcoin-Linked Stock Plunge

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the corporate vehicle for Bitcoin accumulation, teeters on ejection from the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI USA indexes after its shares cratered 57% in six months. The firm’s extreme correlation to Bitcoin—once its superpower—has become its undoing as the cryptocurrency retreats from its $126,000 peak to $85,000.

Index providers enforce ruthless selection criteria: market capitalization, liquidity, and performance. Strategy’s 40% single-month drop violates these thresholds. The stock now mirrors Bitcoin’s volatility without the upside that once made it a darling of crypto-linked equities.

Investors who backed Saylor’s all-in Bitcoin bet face a reckoning. The company’s market value, once buoyed by crypto enthusiasm, now sinks under the weight of its own design—a pure-play Bitcoin proxy with no operational hedge.

Bitcoin Plummets Below $86,000 as Strong Jobs Data Dashes Rate Cut Hopes

Bitcoin tumbled 7.3% to $85,700, its lowest level in seven months, after robust U.S. employment data signaled persistent inflation. September's 119,000 new jobs—more than double expectations—reduced market confidence in a December Fed rate cut to just 35.4% probability.

Vincent Liu of Kronos Research noted the employment surprise 'diminished hopes for monetary easing,' exacerbating crypto market volatility. The selloff reflects a broader recalibration as traders acknowledge that even a potential December rate cut may not sustainably revive crypto markets without fresh capital inflows.

The downturn highlights Bitcoin's heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic signals amid low liquidity. While some view this as a healthy correction, the path to recovery likely requires stronger on-chain demand fundamentals rather than relying solely on monetary policy shifts.

Bitcoin ETFs See Historic $903M Outflow as Jobs Data Dampen Crypto Rally

Bitcoin plunged below $86,000 after U.S. spot ETFs recorded their second-largest single-day outflow on record. BlackRock's IBIT led the retreat with $355.5 million withdrawn, equivalent to over 4,100 BTC exiting holdings. Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC followed with $190 million and $199 million in redemptions respectively.

The selloff accelerated after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Total assets across U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs fell to $113 billion despite $8.92 billion in trading volume, signaling evaporating risk appetite.

This marks a 32% decline from Bitcoin's October peak of $126,080. The parallel $262 million outflow from ethereum spot ETFs—now in its eighth consecutive day of withdrawals—suggests broadening institutional caution across crypto assets.

Treasury Secretary’s Bitcoin Bar Visit Signals Crypto’s Political Coming-of-Age

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s unannounced appearance at Pubkey DC—a Bitcoin-themed bar in Washington—ignited fervor across the cryptocurrency community. The move, interpreted as a tacit endorsement of digital assets, coincided with Bitcoin trading at $85,500, a retreat from its October peak of $125,100.

Industry figures like Ben Werkman of Strive and Nakamoto’s Steven Lubka hailed the visit as a watershed moment for regulatory acceptance. Bessent, a proponent of the GENIUS Act and US crypto hub ambitions, has steadily championed legislative clarity since his 2024 nomination.

The bar’s DC debut follows its New York counterpart, which drew Donald TRUMP during his campaign—a symmetry not lost on observers. Crypto personalities from Gemini’s Jeff Tiller to analyst Fred Krueger amplified the event on social media, framing it as institutional validation.